Oct. 28, 2025
By George Richardson
Why the winners of Net Zero 2.0 will be those who can absorb shocks, not just scale technology.
The End of the Expansion Era
The first phase of the global energy transition has been about growth.
Gigawatts installed. Billions invested. Targets set and announced with conviction.
But in 2025, that growth story began to show its limits. Subsidies are being rolled back. Grid congestion is increasing. Policy alignment is fracturing. What was once a one directional march toward decarbonisation is now a more complex, uneven, and volatile landscape.
The question facing boards and investors has shifted.
It is no longer “how fast can we grow?” but “how well can we endure?”.
This marks the beginning of a new phase in the transition, one defined by resilience.
The New Shape of Volatility
Volatility is no longer the exception. It is the operating environment.
Political cycles are reversing policy signals overnight. Supply chains that looked secure are fragmenting under pressure. Markets that were flooded with low cost capital two years ago are now facing tightening credit and slower deal flow.
The transition itself is creating its own turbulence.
AI driven energy demand is stretching grids. Extreme weather is testing systems built for another era. Over reliance on a handful of technologies or materials has exposed fragility across sectors.
This volatility is structural. It will not fade with the next election cycle or rate cut. The energy transition is now a long term test of adaptability and endurance.
From Scale to Resilience
For the last decade, progress was measured in megawatts. The next decade will be measured in stability.
Resilience is not about avoiding risk. It is about withstanding it.
It is the capacity to absorb disruption without losing momentum.
That means building redundancy into supply chains, flexibility into capital structures, and optionality into strategy. It also means shifting how success is measured. Capacity built will remain important, but system durability, from balance sheets to grid performance, will define long term competitiveness.
Investors are already beginning to recognise this shift. The most attractive projects and companies are no longer those that simply deploy quickly, but those that can prove they will still be standing when conditions change.
Technology Alone Will Not Deliver It
The next stage of progress will not come from another technological breakthrough alone. It will come from leadership.
Resilient organisations are led by people who understand complexity and act with discipline. They know that the energy transition is not linear. It accelerates, slows, and accelerates again.
Leaders must now operate at the intersection of energy, technology, and finance. They must be fluent in regulation and risk. They must have the courage to make decisions in uncertainty, and the humility to adjust when data changes.
This is a different leadership profile. It blends strategic foresight with operational realism. It values collaboration over hierarchy and adaptability over perfection.
Boards that recognise and nurture this mindset will be better equipped to navigate the volatility ahead.
The Resilience Premium
Capital is beginning to price resilience as a distinct source of value.
Investors are looking beyond growth curves. They are asking whether companies can withstand supply shocks, policy reversals, and credit tightening. A growing number of funds are treating resilience as an investment criterion in its own right, one that influences cost of capital and access to long term funding.
For infrastructure investors, the logic is clear. A project that delivers steady performance through disruption is more valuable than one that depends on perpetual optimism. For boards, resilience is not a cost. It is a multiplier of trust, stability, and optionality.
Leadership and the Long View
Leadership is the hinge between resilience as a concept and resilience as a capability.
It requires a mindset shift, from maximising near term growth to safeguarding long term continuity. From chasing scale to building systems that can adapt under pressure.
This does not mean slowing down. It means building smarter.
Leaders must now balance speed with durability, ensuring that rapid progress does not come at the expense of structural strength.
At Norman Broadbent, we see this transformation underway. Organisations across energy, infrastructure, and digital systems are reassessing the leadership qualities they need to thrive in a more complex, less predictable world. The ability to lead through volatility is now a core differentiator.
Net Zero 2.0
The next chapter of the transition will be shaped by endurance, not acceleration.
Phase one was about building capacity. Phase two is about proving resilience.
Technology, capital, and policy will continue to evolve. But the constant will be leadership, the ability to navigate change without losing purpose.
The winners of Net Zero 2.0 will not be those who build the most. They will be those who build what lasts.